GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.L) plans to split into a consumer healthcare and a riskier biopharma company In 2023. Glaxo have confirmed that dividends will be maintained at 80p for 2021, bit there has been a warning that dividends are likely to fall after the breakup. The split dividend cut on the cards has probably got a lot to do with the Glaxo share price dropping in recent months.
What About the New Glaxo stocks?
The new biopharma company, despite the plans for lower yields will be be high risk. Drug development is expensive and payoffs are often uncertain, and there will be no stable consumer healthcare cash flows to protect them. A stable dividend policy will be difficult to hold, and will therefore probably start on the low side. The consumer healthcare company is unlikely to be able to make up the shortfall on its own, which makes 67p combined 2022 dividend that analysts predict seem about right.
For me, with the split causing some uncertainty, I am giving Glaxo a HOLD rating,
Aviva (AV.L) paid its shareholders paid a half year dividend of 7p in Jan. A final year dividend of 14p is expected to be announced with full year results next months. The predicted dividend yield on Aviva stock sits around 6% on a share price of 368p, which is decent. With Aviva shares are also trading at 6.8 times its 12 month earnings, I think they look cheap and will be buying som more.
However, Aviva did cut its dividend last year, and that took the total number of dividend cuts to 3 in 10 years. If Aviva does end up paying a 2020 dividend of 21p in March, that only takes payments back to the around the same level as 2015. That said, I think there is good reason to believe the Aviva dividend will be maintained and grow in the future. Their CEO has been in place for less than a year, but has been busy selling unwanted businesses abroad. This is all part of a plan to transform Aviva, and focus its core markets in the UK, Ireland, and Canada, with the aim to and pay off it debt holdings. So shareholders can expect dividend growth to be linked to performance in core markets and be around 7 to 8% a year going forward.
So in summary for me, Aviva based on steady growth predictions and a wealthy dividend, give is a BUY rating a Bulls & Bears.